The U.S. Financial System in 2011: How Will Sufficient Credit Be Provided?

Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US

This paper investigates the linear and nonlinear effects of financial regulation policy uncertainty shocks on US macroeconomic aggregates within a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework. Financial regulation policy uncertainty (FRPU) is quantified with a news-based index developed by Baker et al. (2013). Particular attention is paid to the reaction of corporate credit spreads to FRPU shocks. The...

How the US drug safety system should be changed.

READING A RECENT NEWSPAPER MIGHT REMIND ONE of the above quote. One of the questions the nation is currently confronted with is what should be done to address the safety of drugs. In this Commentary, the current system of drug safety monitoring will be described and the limitations of the current system will be highlighted. A potential solution will then be proposed that will require legislatio...

How Minds Will Be Built

Artificial intelligence started with the goal of understanding minds by attempting to build them. This essay discussed how our field’s research has become unbalanced, and what might be done to change this situation. Specifically, I argue that more of our efforts should be focused on creating integrated cognitive systems. The founding of this journal will hopefully help by promoting such research.

Who amongst us will be selected?

How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis

We study the behavior of credit and output across a financial crisis cycle using information from credit spreads. We show the transition into a crisis occurs with a large increase in credit spreads, indicating that crises involve a dramatic shift in expectations and are a surprise. The severity of the subsequent crisis can be forecast by the size of credit losses (change in spreads) coupled wit...